The 10-year, in three pieces

Every day the nominal 10-year yield is split exactly into RRFNR + term premium + breakeven. The pieces always add up to the yield, so any move in the 10-year can be traced to what drove it. That attribution, not the level, is the point of this page.

Real rates (RRFNR)

The real risk-free neutral rate: the market's expected average real policy rate over the next 10 years, computed as the 10-year TIPS yield minus the term premium. It blends two things: the expected Fed path over the next few years, and the neutral rate (r*) the economy settles at beyond that. When policy sits near neutral it tracks r* closely; when the Fed is far from neutral, the policy path can move it on its own.

Term premium

The extra yield investors demand for locking money up for 10 years instead of rolling short-term bills. It rises with uncertainty about inflation and policy, heavy Treasury supply, or weaker demand for duration. Pinebrook runs its own version of the Adrian-Crump-Moench model used by the NY Fed, updated the same evening, and checks it against the NY Fed's published series every night.

Breakevens: inflation compensation

The gap between the nominal and TIPS 10-year yields. It's labeled compensation, not expectations, on purpose: it includes expected inflation plus a premium for inflation risk, and is affected by TIPS trading conditions. For the same reason, RRFNR and breakevens each carry a small share of those effects.

The driver

Whichever piece did most of the 10-year's move over the last 20 trading days, in the direction of the move. A new driver only registers after holding for 5 straight days, so one noisy session can't flip it. "No dominant driver" means no piece moved at least 12bp.

The jaws

The real 10-year yield equals RRFNR plus the term premium, so the gap between the two lines is the term premium. Jaws opening: real yields rising faster than expected real rates, meaning investors want more for holding duration. Jaws closing: the move is coming from expected real rates instead.

How stretched

Where each yield sits against its own history since 2003 (2010 for the 30-year real). The shaded band is the average ±2 standard deviations; σ is how many standard deviations today's reading is from the average. Outside the band is historically unusual, not a signal to act on by itself.

Provisional days

The Fed's zero-coupon curve, which the term premium model runs on, updates about weekly. For days after its latest update, the term premium is estimated from Treasury's same-day curve and marked PROV. Those readings are typically within 1–2bp of the final value and are replaced automatically when the Fed's curve catches up.